Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 11.914882 13.955548 16.193765 18.824550 21.825467 25.135097 29.054518
2024-12-15 9.234475 11.998605 15.306957 19.531704 24.753710 30.965136 38.877854
2024-12-22 7.273805 10.338871 14.291632 19.702256 26.845656 35.875843 48.063520
2024-12-29 5.890066 9.065262 13.436707 19.789219 28.657487 40.451687 57.144113
2025-01-05 4.661737 7.731181 12.221709 19.114357 29.233172 43.311798 64.086837
2025-01-12 3.907599 6.931154 11.600683 19.121383 30.654837 47.334776 72.836015
2025-01-19 3.309761 6.254483 11.038019 19.091733 31.943610 51.190014 81.561199
2025-01-26 3.028607 6.046414 11.166570 20.118607 34.890483 57.665531 94.559318
2025-02-02 2.752434 5.793865 11.173263 20.920787 37.518683 63.811735 107.448882
2025-02-09 2.532890 5.604468 11.252681 21.831885 40.373407 70.479837 121.554794
2025-02-16 2.215469 5.168983 10.827533 21.799256 41.612435 74.611514 131.864640
2025-02-23 1.863032 4.597610 10.067374 21.061732 41.537514 76.538573 138.667744
2025-03-02 1.562677 4.087577 9.366820 20.374464 41.523137 78.628623 146.008036
2025-03-09 1.388041 3.824964 9.124710 20.537109 43.066632 83.496512 158.363763
2025-03-16 1.218913 3.541865 8.798510 20.489300 44.198940 87.704123 169.828886
2025-03-23 1.076889 3.296237 8.516361 20.492888 45.416756 92.128247 181.923178
2025-03-30 0.905219 2.936683 7.924109 19.764792 45.108807 93.709331 188.983959
2025-04-06 0.802357 2.740168 7.679625 19.759746 46.250398 98.056793 201.325421
2025-04-13 0.710970 2.555748 7.436055 19.724523 47.316274 102.312849 213.721107
2025-04-20 0.684059 2.557530 7.655903 20.779388 50.773664 111.415718 235.742931
2025-04-27 0.647421 2.521740 7.774063 21.603968 53.792605 119.822441 256.856719
2025-05-04 0.617823 2.502502 7.932847 22.540903 57.125948 129.040902 279.995159
2025-05-11 0.552432 2.349352 7.708007 22.507226 58.282891 133.911187 294.861985